I like to compare the number of moments currently circulating too. So when looking at Tate vs Okongwu, Tate's moment has 3X more circulating today while most of Okongwu's hasn't been released in packs yet. My prediction is Okongwu's value will drop as his moments are released.
Also, you have to consider the star potential for rookies. Tate is a really great role player with tools on both ends of the floor, however, Tate will never be a star. He's putting up great numbers at the moment, but I think that objectively he's over-priced based on this and all the badges. Realistically Tate will be a slightly better PJ Tucker and below Draymond Green's level. That's a really good NBA player, however, might not have huge value as a collectible.
Interesting. How would you add that "x factor" that is not measurable with stats? For example, first young player that comes to my mind is Dort. Defense that that guy plays cannot be measured with conventional stats.
Good point. There are plenty of guys that have an impact on the game that isn't captured with one of their stats in the box score. There are some team defense statistics that can help, and they can be analyzed for when a player is on / off the court. In the context of Top Shot, the market has seemed to not assign much value to these types of players that really help you win games, but don't fill up the stat sheet or make the highlight reel.
Unfortunately, yes... defense has been gradually killed and people appreciating are scarce. We could say even that TS market doesn't even care about conventional def stats.
Tate is 25, Okongwu is 20. I wonder what the trend line would look like if you added age as a variable. Great post!
That's a really good point! Definitely speaks to the possible room for growth for Okongwu
I like to compare the number of moments currently circulating too. So when looking at Tate vs Okongwu, Tate's moment has 3X more circulating today while most of Okongwu's hasn't been released in packs yet. My prediction is Okongwu's value will drop as his moments are released.
Also, you have to consider the star potential for rookies. Tate is a really great role player with tools on both ends of the floor, however, Tate will never be a star. He's putting up great numbers at the moment, but I think that objectively he's over-priced based on this and all the badges. Realistically Tate will be a slightly better PJ Tucker and below Draymond Green's level. That's a really good NBA player, however, might not have huge value as a collectible.
Interesting. How would you add that "x factor" that is not measurable with stats? For example, first young player that comes to my mind is Dort. Defense that that guy plays cannot be measured with conventional stats.
Good point. There are plenty of guys that have an impact on the game that isn't captured with one of their stats in the box score. There are some team defense statistics that can help, and they can be analyzed for when a player is on / off the court. In the context of Top Shot, the market has seemed to not assign much value to these types of players that really help you win games, but don't fill up the stat sheet or make the highlight reel.
Unfortunately, yes... defense has been gradually killed and people appreciating are scarce. We could say even that TS market doesn't even care about conventional def stats.
I miss the 90s NBA :)
Tate is 25, Okongwu is 20. I wonder what the trend line would look like if you added age as a variable. Great post!